Indian forests could nearly double their carbon storage by 2100, modelling study finds

A modelling study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate has projected that India's forests could nearly double their carbon storage capacity by the end of the 21st century. The estimate is sensitive to the trajectory of global greenhouse-gas emissions: vegetation carbon biomass is projected to rise by about 35 per cent under a low-emissions scenario, 62 per cent under medium emissions, and as much as 97 per cent under a high-emissions scenario by 2100.

The researchers attribute the projected gains to a combination of higher rainfall over many parts of India, higher atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations that aid photosynthesis, and improved water-use efficiency in plants. Together, these factors are expected to support increased forest growth, especially in regions that have so far been carbon-poor.

Notably, the largest relative increases — over 60 per cent — are projected in the arid and semi-arid margins of Rajasthan and Gujarat, where current vegetation cover and biomass are limited. Wetter zones in the Western Ghats and the Northeast, by contrast, may see smaller percentage gains because they are already close to their biomass ceiling.

The study aligns with the Forest Survey of India's most recent estimates, which show total forest carbon stock rising from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023. However, the authors caution that these gains are not automatic — they depend on continued forest protection, control of degradation, and the design of climate-mitigation policies under the Paris Agreement.

Exam angle: Important for UPSC GS-III (environment, climate change), prelims-style facts (Forest Survey of India numbers, Paris Agreement), and SSC GA. Note the link between rising CO2, photosynthesis (CO2 fertilisation effect) and biomass growth — a common conceptual MCQ.