Below Normal Monsoon 2026: IMD and Skymet Forecasts Signal Rainfall Deficit

Both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private forecaster Skymet have predicted a below-normal monsoon for 2026, raising concerns about agricultural output, water availability, and rural livelihoods. IMD forecasts total seasonal rainfall (June-September) at around 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), while Skymet's forecast is slightly lower.

A monsoon is considered "normal" when rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA (based on the 1971-2020 average of 87 cm). Below-normal rainfall can significantly impact kharif crop production, particularly rice, sugarcane, cotton, and pulses, which together account for a major share of India's food production.

The forecast is linked to developing La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. While La Nina typically brings above-normal rainfall to India, the current pattern is described as "weak" and may not offset other adverse factors including warming of the Indian Ocean and unfavourable wind patterns.

A rainfall deficit has wide-ranging consequences: reduced agricultural GDP (which accounts for approximately 15% of India's total GDP but employs about 42% of the workforce), higher food prices, increased rural distress, and potential strain on hydroelectric power generation. The government may need to activate contingency plans including increasing buffer stocks of foodgrains and ensuring timely release of seeds and fertilizers.

For exam preparation, understanding the Indian monsoon mechanism (differential heating, ITCZ, Somali Jet, Tibetan Plateau effect), El Nino/La Nina impacts on Indian rainfall, and the role of IMD in weather forecasting is crucial.