El Nino Conditions Declared: What It Means for India's Monsoon and Food Inflation

On 11 June 2026, the United States ocean and atmosphere science agency confirmed that El Nino conditions have set in over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the unusual warming of the central and eastern Pacific waters near the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. Forecasters say there is about a 62 to 63 percent chance this turns into a "very strong" event during October 2026 to January 2027, which would place it among the most powerful such events in decades. A day later, the India Meteorological Department also confirmed its arrival and said it is likely to gain strength as the southwest monsoon advances.

El Nino matters for India because it tends to weaken the trade winds over the Pacific. This drains the strength of the moisture-carrying monsoon winds heading towards the country, so rainfall usually falls short. Since 1951, twelve of seventeen El Nino years brought below-normal or deficient rain. The IMD has projected this year's monsoon at 90 percent of the long-period average, which would make it the weakest since 2015. After reaching the Kerala coast three days late on 4 June, the season had a rainfall shortfall of about 28 percent as of 14 June, raising worry over the planting of kharif crops.

The scale of damage will depend not just on total rain but on how it is spread out. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, can partly cancel El Nino's drag on the monsoon. But the IMD expects neutral dipole conditions through the season, so that cushion may not arrive. El Nino also tends to lift temperatures, which can mean a short, warm winter that hurts rabi (winter-spring) crops.

Food prices are the other concern. So far global food has stayed calm, thanks to back-to-back bumper harvests in 2024-25 and 2025-26, both non-El Nino years, that rebuilt grain stocks. But India's retail food inflation has crept up from 2.1 percent in January 2026 to 4.8 percent in May. Persistent heat has already pushed up the prices of vegetables, cooking oil, dairy and eggs, with tomatoes costing nearly half as much again as a year earlier. A weak monsoon could deepen these pressures, especially for pulses and oilseeds where India depends heavily on imports.

Because the monsoon brings about three-quarters of India's yearly rain, the stakes go well beyond farming. The rains recharge groundwater, fill reservoirs, support drinking water and industry, and power hydroelectric plants. With El Nino expected to last into 2027, parts of the country could again face water shortages similar to those seen in the dry summer of 2016.